Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
